I. Global Air Cargo Trapped in "High Costs + Low Capacity" Double Pressure
 
Soaring international oil prices and surging jet fuel costs, combined with intensive cancellations of Middle East flights by multiple airlines and collective increases in fuel surcharges, have driven air cargo prices up rapidly—with some routes surging by 70% or even doubling. The global air cargo system is being pushed into a double squeeze of "high costs + low capacity".
 
 
 
II. Airlines Raise Prices Collectively, Air Freight Market Enters "High-Pressure Zone"
 
1. Cost Side: Rising Oil Prices Push Up Freight Rates
 
Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged sharply, rapidly amplifying pressure on jet fuel costs (which typically account for more than 30% of airlines' total operating costs). To hedge against cost risks, airlines worldwide have raised fuel surcharges one after another, pushing up the overall level of air freight prices.
 
2. Capacity Side: Route Contraction Worsens Supply Shortages
 
Affected by airspace restrictions and security risks, a large number of cargo flights on Middle East routes have been forced to cancel or reroute, leading to a sharp reduction in capacity supply. Coupled with extended flight ranges and reduced payloads caused by detours, effective capacity space is further compressed, driving freight rates higher.
 
3. Market Data: Some Routes Nearly Double in Freight Rates
 
- South Asia to Europe: Spot freight rates up ~70% since before the conflict
- South Asia to North America: Up nearly 60%
- Europe to Middle East: Up over 50%
- Feedback from domestic freight forwarders: Air freight prices on some European routes have risen from over 20 yuan per kg to nearly 40 yuan, with no short-term signs of cooling.
 
 
 
III. "Not Just Expensive, But No Flights" – Capacity Crisis Worsens
 
Compared with price hikes, the more thorny market issue is "no available cargo space". The Middle East air freight market has shifted from a "price problem" to a "capacity problem":
 
- Traditional transit hubs like Dubai and Doha are operating under restrictions, affecting over 10% of global air cargo capacity.
- Airlines generally choose detours to avoid risks, increasing flight time by 1–3 hours, which not only raises fuel consumption but also reduces cargo loading efficiency.
- Enterprises have almost lost control over logistics; some freight forwarders state that Middle East routes are basically in a "semi-paralyzed" state, and cargo owners are adopting a wait-and-see approach until the situation clears.
 
 
 
IV. Cross-Border Sellers Halt Operations, Supply Chain Shocks Spill Over
 
The double impact of soaring freight rates and capacity shortages is rapidly spreading to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain:
 
1. Cross-Border Sellers Suspend Shipments
 
With sharply rising transportation costs and unreliable timeliness, many enterprises have suspended shipments and are waiting for the situation to stabilize with local clients. Middle East customers are more concerned about security issues and show consensus on the slowdown of trade pace.
 
2. High-Value / Time-Sensitive Products Face Pressure
 
Time-sensitive and high-value goods such as pharmaceuticals, electronic products, and fresh produce—highly dependent on air freight—are the first to face supply chain pressure. Some enterprises are switching to sea freight, but higher costs further push up terminal prices, creating an inflationary transmission effect.
 
3. Cost Pressure Transmits to Consumers
 
Industry insiders point out that air cargo value accounts for about one-third of global trade volume. Sustained high freight rates will inevitably pass on cost pressures to end consumers.