VLCC Daily Rates Surge by $115,000; First Tanker Transits Hormuz Strait
 
Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, bringing pivotal changes to the international crude oil shipping market. On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire agreement and launched a two-week negotiation process. Although Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz again and suspend tanker transits following Israel’s attack on Lebanon, the vital waterway was not fully shut down, triggering sharp volatility in shipping sentiment.
 
According to vessel AIS data, on the evening of April 9, the Cameroon-flagged VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) VEXO successfully traversed the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf, becoming the first such vessel to pass through the channel after the US-Iran ceasefire. Built in 2000 with a deadweight tonnage of 309,497 tons, the vessel departed south of Fujairah on the afternoon of April 9, entered the Strait of Hormuz channel, and arrived in Persian Gulf waters in the early hours of April 10. Its AIS destination is currently listed as “To order”, reflecting flexible cargo directions amid high market uncertainty.
 
Since February 28, a total of 11 VLCCs have transited the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to VEXO, the most recent vessel was AQUA, which entered the Persian Gulf on April 6 and now anchors south of Kharg Island. On April 9, total vessel calls in the Persian Gulf reached 15, including 2 container ships, 2 crude oil tankers, 1 product tanker, zero LNG/LPG carriers, and 10 other vessels. Four vessels entered and 11 departed. Traffic volume rose 87.50% month-on-month but plummeted 88.28% year-on-year, indicating regional shipping activity remains in a low-level recovery phase with fragile fundamentals.
 
Driven by expectations of a “fragile ceasefire”, optimism over the resumption of full navigation through the Strait of Hormuz rose rapidly, pushing VLCC freight rates sharply higher—with daily rates surging by $115,000 in a single day. According to Clarksons data, boosted by the Middle East–China route, global VLCC daily rates jumped from $325,000/day to $440,000/day. Non-eco vessels without scrubbers once peaked at $540,000/day on this route.
 
Notably, freight rates and actual fixtures have diverged significantly, with high prices failing to translate into firm business. On one hand, Iran’s proposed toll on vessels transiting the strait is set to be tested by the market. Sources indicate the charge may be set at $1 per barrel, plus demurrage, war risk premiums, and potential delay costs, greatly increasing overall voyage expenses and discouraging shipowners from entering the Middle East Gulf, thus supporting high rates.
 
On the other hand, “high prices but no fixtures” has become a defining market feature. A previous VLCC fixture from the Middle East Gulf to Southeast Asia, offered at $600,000/day, failed to conclude. Glencore’s ST Shipping & Transport also abandoned plans to charter Heidmar’s Asian Lion (297,600 DWT, built 2009) at $395,000/day.
 
Industry analysts point out that since US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran on February 28, Middle East Gulf loading rates have lacked genuine fixture support, staying at “artificially high levels” without reliable pricing benchmarks. Several shipping brokerages report widespread caution among shipowners toward entering the Middle East Gulf. Spot tonnage availability remains extremely limited, resulting in poor market liquidity.
 
Anoop Singh, Research Head at Oil Brokerage, stated plainly that without a return to normal transits through the Strait of Hormuz within the two-week ceasefire window, a substantial recovery in the crude oil shipping market is unlikely.
 
From a supply-demand perspective, around 50 fully laden VLCCs are currently stranded in the Middle East Gulf, with only 5 in ballast. While most owners remain on the sidelines, a potential inventory release by oil producers could generate transport demand for roughly 80 million barrels of crude, equivalent to about 40 VLCCs. A resumption in Iraqi production would require an additional 25 vessels. Meanwhile, 41 VLCCs are standing by near India, ready to deploy within a week, and another 39 ballast vessels in Southeast Asia provide supplementary capacity, offering flexibility for future market adjustments.