Maersk's US-flagged container vessel Maersk Denver is currently transiting the Red Sea, marking a tentative step toward resuming the key shipping route. The vessel departed Oman’s Salalah on January 10, switched off its AIS tracking system temporarily, and reactivated it on January 13 upon entering the Red Sea, operating on the Middle East-US East Coast MECL service.
 
Maersk’s move follows the December 2025 milestone where major carriers like CMA CGM and Maersk reintroduced ultra-large container ships through the Suez Canal for the first time in two years—a breakthrough spurred by the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire that eased regional tensions. Since the 2023 seizure of the Galaxy Leader by Yemen’s Houthi forces, most liners had avoided the Red Sea-Suez Canal corridor, opting for longer, costlier detours.
 
Resuming Red Sea sailings delivers tangible benefits: it cuts approximately 3,000 nautical miles and 10 days of voyage time per trip, slashing fuel costs by $200,000–$300,000 per voyage. CMA CGM has already announced plans to restart the Suez route for its India-US INDAMEX service in January 2026, while Maersk is adopting a gradual, test-based approach with no immediate plans for additional sailings.
 
However, the comeback poses significant challenges. Full resumption could trigger a sharp rebound in global container shipping capacity surplus—projected to surge from the current 3.5%–4% to 14%–15% in 2026, and potentially 20% by 2027 as new vessels hit the water—pressuring freight rates downward. Short-term hurdles also include port congestion risks (as ships arrive ahead of schedule, straining terminal capacity) and elevated war risk insurance costs, with Hapag-Lloyd delaying its own route resumption due to client concerns over cargo risks.
 
Moreover, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) set to take full effect in 2026 will raise operational costs, creating a dual squeeze of falling freight rates and rising expenses for carriers. The Red Sea’s revival is reshaping global shipping dynamics, forcing liners to balance route efficiency against risk, and supply chain stakeholders to adjust inventory and delivery strategies swiftly.
 
English Translation
 
Maersk’s US-flagged container ship Maersk Denver is now sailing through the Red Sea, a cautious attempt to restart this critical shipping lane. The vessel left Salalah, Oman on January 10, shut down its AIS tracking temporarily, and turned it back on on January 13 when entering the Red Sea, running the MECL service connecting the Middle East and the US East Coast.
 
This move comes after a key development in December 2025: major shipping lines including CMA CGM and Maersk sent ultra-large container ships through the Suez Canal for the first time in two years. This progress was driven by the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, which reduced tensions in the region. Since Yemen’s Houthi forces seized the Galaxy Leader in 2023, most shipping companies had avoided the Red Sea-Suez Canal route, choosing longer and more expensive alternative paths instead.
 
Resuming Red Sea voyages brings clear advantages: it cuts about 3,000 nautical miles and 10 days off each trip, reducing fuel costs by $200,000 to $300,000 per voyage. CMA CGM has already said it will restart the Suez route for its India-US INDAMEX service in January 2026. Maersk, on the other hand, is taking a slow, trial-based approach and has no plans to add more sailings for now.
 
Yet, this route’s return also comes with big challenges. Full resumption of Red Sea sailings could lead to a rapid increase in global container shipping capacity surplus. According to forecasts, the surplus rate will jump from the current 3.5%–4% to 14%–15% in 2026, and may even hit 20% by 2027 as new ships are delivered, which will push freight rates down. In the short term, there are also risks like port congestion (ships arriving earlier than expected will put pressure on terminal operations) and high war risk insurance costs. Hapag-Lloyd has delayed its own route resumption because clients are worried about cargo risks.
 
In addition, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which will be fully implemented in 2026, will increase operational costs. This creates a double pressure on shipping companies: falling freight rates and rising expenses. The revival of the Red Sea route is reshaping global shipping patterns, forcing shipping lines to balance route efficiency and risk, and making supply chain players adjust their inventory and delivery strategies quickly.