Ships bypass the Cape of Good Hope! Will the freight rate rise sharply?

According to Clarkson's research statistics, as of December 18th, major container liner companies Maersk, Mediterranean, CMA, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Hyundai Merchant Shipping, Yangming Shipping and Evergreen all announced the suspension of shipping services via the Red Sea. 

These suspended companies account for 74 percent of the global container fleet. If you take into account the Israeli liner line, which has diverted ships around the Cape of Good Hope in recent weeks, they account for more than 95 percent of all liner routes through the Suez Canal. 

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, an industry analyst, believes that the transportation cost of Asia-Europe routes will be "greatly increased".

According to a person in charge of a freight forwarding company, some shipping companies have announced the latest freight rates, among which the freight rates of related routes from Far East to Israel have been pushed up to more than 6,000 US dollars/FEU. "In the first half of December, the freight rate was only over 1,000 US dollars/FEU, and in the second half of December, it was only over 2,000 US dollars/FEU. 

According to industry insiders, if the geopolitical uncertainty continues to increase and the detour time is lengthened, the port congestion problem will become a problem again, which will have a serious negative impact on the liquidity of the global supply chain, and the freight rate may hit an "unreasonably high level". 

船舶绕行好望角！运价会大幅上涨吗？

       据克拉克森研究统计，截至12月18日，主要集装箱船班轮公司马士基、地中海、达飞、赫伯罗特、ONE、现代商船、阳明海运和长荣均宣布暂停途经红海航运的服务。

       这些暂停服务公司集装箱运力合计占全球集装箱船船队总运力74%。如果将以色列班轮公司以星考虑进内（该公司最近几周已将船只绕航好望角），这些公司在全部途径苏伊士运河的班轮航线上运力占比达到95%以上。

       行业分析机构Xeneta的首席分析师Peter Sand认为，亚欧航线的运输成本将“大幅上涨”。

       有货代公司负责人透露，已有船公司公布最新运费，其中远东至以色列相关航线运费已推涨至超过6000美元/FEU。“就在12月上半月运费还只有1000多美元/FEU，下半月（起始）也仅2000多美元/FEU。

       业内人士认为，若此次地缘政治不确定性持续增加，绕行的时间拉长，港口拥堵问题将会再次成为困扰，将对全球供应链的流动性造成严重的负面影响，运价或将冲击“不合理的高位”。