Goldman Sachs: The shipping industry recession may be more lasting and serious!
Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Creuset predicted in the latest report that the recession of the shipping industry will be more serious and lasting than the market thought, which will lead to the continuous decline of freight prices and company profits in the shipping industry, and Maersk's future is not optimistic.
"We believe that the market still does not recognize the severity and duration of the recession that shipping is facing. At present, there is still excess freight capacity in the market, which will put pressure on the price of goods and the profit of the company. Maersk's profit is expected to drop by 8% in 2023-2024.
Creuset said that although the shipping market is experiencing price decline, the supply in the shipping market is still relatively abundant due to the continuous delivery of new ships, the timely delivery of goods and the small number of ships that are out of service and scrapped.
Delivery rates of new ships account for about 1% of the global fleet, with little delay, low idle and scrapped volumes, and a significant increase in active ship capacity on major routes in November.
It is worth mentioning that the container shipping industry relies on the global demand trend. During the COVID-19 period of 2020-22, with retailers and other companies replenishing their stocks to meet the pent-up demand of consumers, the container shipping industry ushered in an unprecedented prosperity, with one container hard to find and the freight rate rising continuously.
高盛：航运业衰退可能更持久更严重！
高盛分析师Patrick Creuset在最新的报告中预测，航运业的衰退将比市场所想的更严重也更持久，这会导致航运业的货运价格和公司的盈利持续下滑，马士基的未来不容乐观。
“我们认为市场仍然没有认清航运即将面临的衰退严重程度和持续时间。目前市场中货运能力依旧过剩，这会导致货物的价格和公司的利润受到压力。预计马士基2023-2024年盈利将下降8%。
Creuset还表示，尽管航运市场正在经历价格下跌，但由于新船只的不断投放，货物可以按时交付，且停用和报废的船只较少，航运市场上的供应仍然相对充裕。
新船只的交付速度约占全球舰队的1%，几乎没有拖延，空闲和报废量很低，而且11月活跃船只容量在主要航线上将大幅增长。
值得一提的是，集装箱航运业依赖于全球需求趋势，2020-22年新冠期间，随着零售商和其他公司补充库存，以满足消费者被压抑的需求，集装箱航运业迎来了空前的繁荣，出现一箱难求、运价持续上涨的情况。
